Hurricane Forecasting (Meteorology and Statistics) Hurricane tracking and estimation in the United States is centered in the federal government’s National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida. However, one pioneering effort in the application of statistical analysis and econometric techniques to hurricane analysis and forecasting has been undertaken by William Gray, professor of meteorology at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado. Dr. Gray’s research is based on the foundation that hurricanes are caused by global, rather than local factors, to include the influence of El Niño (El Niño Effect, resulting in reduced hurricane activity as opposed to the La Niña when hurricanes tend to be more common) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean as well as wind directions (pressure differentials) and precipitation levels. His research has led to an extensive quantitative expression to estimate both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the western Atlantic region (to include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico) during the usual peak hurricane season of mid-August through mid-October. The following relationship represents an Econometric Model for forecasting hurricane activity based upon a number of climatological explanatory factors covering a vast geographic range.
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Author of the Water Words Dictionary source of text: Gary A. Horton
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